The new Safaricom advert seems initially to have ruffled some feathers especially on the Kenyan social media space with hints and rants of plagiarism and lack of originality with a conspicuous semblance to a 2009 Qantas advertisement. Little did the greater world know that both adverts shared similar production and creative leads and that in fact the Safaricom advert was actually based on the original Qantas advert. I’ve always retorted that we live in a world of ‘copy, paste and edit’, some of the greatest innovations we perceive generally tend to be incremental improvements to existing stuff e.g. the Apple iPod vis a vis the mp3 player and Sony’s experiments with Atrac3 Walkmans. For more details on the advert see Mark’s post.

I’d promised one of my Twitter followers an explanation as to how Safaricom should already be reaping some ROI at least on the social media front. Now as modeling/forecasting is not an exact science and based on estimations that may go off the cuff at certain times, I will time permitting, try to monitor and re-evaluate the analysis as well as add more details as to why and how ROI could be justified.

On the above diagram, hits/view are on the Y-Axis and days are on the X-Axis. Based on data collected over approximately the past 72 hours and regressing the same over an exponential model, which naturally seems to fit such phenomena, the linear growth should start petering out after the 4th day which I presume should be on the 12th of Nov 2010.  On day 6 there could be shifts towards exponential growth, which should be sustained after day 7. How long it will be sustained is hard to predict, we’ll just have to wait and see after one week. The first regression with data I had collected indicated a crossing of the 100k mark after 9 days, see below. However after adding another data point, I got the figure above. Either way, its quite possible that Kenya’s second viral hit on social media might just be this particular advert and quite possibly, all things being equal and the growth rate sustained it might just beat Makmende. Furthermore a documentary on the making of Niko Na Safaricom has already managed to count 3,000+ hits in less than 24 hours.

Below is a graph of the initial regression.


[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Soud Hyder, Soud Hyder. Soud Hyder said: On Numbers & Niko Na Safaricom I #NikoNa cc: @njugunamwangi [...]

Tweets that mention On Numbers & Niko Na Safaricom I #NikoNa cc: -- added these pithy words on Nov 11 10 at 20:51

Interesting way of looking at it. Time will tell

SupremeGREAM added these pithy words on Nov 11 10 at 21:04

Great thoughts here, man. I think we’ve got a maturing digital class, after #rutoplaylist and #kcpe2010 you find that #makmende did more than just get us on the world stage, but teach us that Kenyans on Twitter – the 11,000 odd users hold quite a bit of clout and power as an audience and a voice.

Mark Kaigwa added these pithy words on Nov 12 10 at 04:49

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On Numbers and Niko Na Safaricom | Part I



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